Letter to FEER: China:decline or not high enough yet?

Letter to FEER: China:decline or not high enough yet?

今天读远东经济评论(2005.9), 有一篇文章标题是:2005:The Year that China Declined?。作者是远东经济评论以前的游击编辑Bruce Gilley。文章很恰当地指出了中国现在在国际上所面临的问题：缺乏价值上的制高点。 如何让中国产品畅销世界可能很难，但是比起如何让中国在价值上占据制高点，市场的问题就不算太难了。 不过，我并不认为Bruce所说的中国开始衰落。因为中国可能根本还没有真正崛起，或者叫复兴更合适。首先，中国现在经济上的繁荣是不平衡的，所以中国在经济上繁荣也还需要很长时间；其次，中国存在太多的社会问题，不满足一个领导性大国（leader great power）所需要的条件。 所以，我给FEER写了个邮件，看看有没有希望登出来。 Decline or not high enough yet? Dear Editor The piece by Bruce Gilley is above all the most attractive one, for me, of the September issue, although Jonathan Anderson had a very hot topic about China. The author uses the concept of software and hardware of power to construct the analysis. This reminds me another concept of softpower, which is first said by Joseph S. Nye. But what Nye want to do with the concept of softpower, as I understand from his book, is to teach United State’s leaders how to maintain a great power’s leadership with softpower, rather than explaining how the rise or fall of great powers will caused by the weakness of softpower. So I don’t see that there is concrete relevance between software (or softpower) and the growing up of a great power. In the process of the emerging of the United Kingdom and the United States as great powers, others recognize their military and economic power more than softpower. Japan was forced to open its door by US’s gunboat rather by the attractiveness of American’s any softpower. Cheap products are China’s gunboat today. The real question, as I see, is how far has China gone on its way to great power? Or how far China needs to go on this way? The shopping of overseas companies, the bid of Unocal, are so different from Japan’s buying of Rockefeller that there is no relevance here. The stuff Chinese companies are now buying is mainly for internal use, fuels to keep its economy going, rather an economic or market invasion like Japanese companies did. Even Lenovo’s buying of IBM’s computer division is more because IBM is happy to throw the departments away. As there are too many internal problems, which the Author named clearly, China is still in the stage to building internal stabilities, even after 20-year reform and opening, and has not yet reach the time to act as a real great power as the UK and US did before. But the idea of the potential of China as great power has long been recognized by US’s leaders even when China was in its civil war in the early 20 century. The high economic growth rate only reflects part of that potential So the question facing today’s China leaders then is after achieving economic prosperity, in certain degree, can China achieve political and culture prosperity stably? China’s experts are aware well of this. It’s exactly like what Gilley writes, the only heady optimists these day s are found in the west. If China’s leader, like Hu and its successors, can manage China through the next decades stably, at that time then we will see the potential of China’s great power really released. Jianfei Zhao Melbourne, Australia Unit 2, 26 Emo Rd, Malvern East, Melbourne, Vic, 3145 Australia 0432488691

李普曼论美国外交政策

李普曼论美国外交政策

US Foreign Policy

By Walter Lippmann

1914年6月，李普曼从哈佛毕业，乘船前往英格兰。在他启航几天前，费迪南大公在萨拉热窝遇刺身亡。七月，李普曼在伦敦度过，期间丝毫没有人与他提及塞尔维亚这个即将爆炸的“火药桶”（《中国历史》语）。七月结束时，李普曼前往比利时，并通过德国前往瑞士，意欲爬山消夏。他回忆说，由于在德国边境的火车站关闭，他感觉颇为扫兴。而此时，比利时处于德国最后通牒之下。

李普曼以自己亲历作为例子，以表明当欧洲即将陷入规模空前的大战之时，身处大西洋一边的美国人是如何对欧洲的事务一无所知。为较正美国人——尤其是美国政治领袖——所持有的与他当时类似的观点，李普曼在1942-1943年完成了《美国外交政策》（US Foreign Policy）一书。这本在伦敦由Hamish Hamilton出版的仅108页的小册子，充满了李普曼对美国外交政策的洞见。在书中，李普曼认为，自19世纪以来，身处大西洋与太平洋之间的美国，其势力范围（commitment）已经远远超过其能力所能平衡，而这种形势一直没有被美国国民和政治领袖认识到。正是在这种情形之下，美国没有任何准备就参与了两次世界大战。因此，李普曼呼吁从历史的角度重新审视美国的外交传统，确定美国的重大利益（vital interests）所在，从而制订20世纪的美国外交政策。

美国的外交传统

如果之前没有读过李普曼著作的话，从此书中可以清楚的看出，李普曼是一位保守主义者。他认为，一个国家的外交势力范围(foreign commitment)应当与其力量（power）成比例。如果势力范围过大，力量过小，则潜藏着被攻击的危险。而美国自建国之后的发展历程，就是一个势力范围不断扩大的过程。从1803年到1853年，美国通过六个阶段基本实现了目前的版图：

首先，通过购买路易比安娜，Jefferson为美国获得了新奥尔良，密西西比河入口，以及现在Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Texas到路易比安娜一带。这一块在密西西比河与洛基山脉之间的版图，自1763年以来属于西班牙。1810年10月，西班牙国王San Ildefonso意欲通过秘密协定让给拿破仑。然而这个消息由美国驻伦敦公使Rufus King告诉了Jefferson，而当时英国正与法国交战，不想让法国在北美拥有势力范围。正巧当时拿破仑在Santo Domingo有三万五千士兵患黄热病。于是，Jefferson在获得英国支持下，向西班牙提议购买路易比安娜。1803年4月30日，协议获签署。

第二阶段。1819年，西班牙把其在密西西比河以东的土地都出让给了美国。

第三步。1846年，通过与英格兰谈判，美国获得了Oregon。

第四步。1846年，从墨西哥脱离出来的德克萨斯加入美国，该地当时包括现在的新墨西哥，部分Colorado，Wyoming, Kansan and Oklahoma.

第五步，1848年，通过结束与墨西哥的战争，美国获得了加尼福利亚，Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and part of New Mexico, Colorado, and Wyoming was ceded to the United States.

第六步，1853年，通过Gadsden Treaty，美国从墨西哥手里购买了Arizona以南的Gila River山谷和新墨西哥。

由此，基本奠定了今日美国的版图。

到1823年，门罗主义确立之时，美国实际上在西半球是惟一的大国，此时法国和西班牙都已经势力不在，而英国虽然仍有势力（如加拿大），但亦是美国的伙伴。

然而，自1823年到第一次世界大战开始之时，美国的军事力量并没有获得巨大发展，与美国的势力范围完全不相衬。美国一直依赖英国皇家海军的强大力量来保持安宁。

(to be continued…01/09/05)